Last week, Florida boasted a COVID-19 case rate that was lower than California’s – in fact among the lowest in the country, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was a surprising development given Governor Ron DeSantis’ much public opposition for vaccine mandates and non-pharmaceutical interventions such as wearing masks.
Some partisans were quick to jump on the news as proof that broad public health measures are unnecessary to stop the pandemic. But the number of cases is only part of the picture of the impact COVID-19 has had on society – and data show that Floridians have slightly more coronavirus than residents of most other states.
Since the onset of the coronavirus crisis, Florida has counted 277 deaths for every 100,000 inhabitants – the seventh highest rate in the country, according to data from the CDC. By comparison, California has had 180 deaths per year. 100,000 people, still a tragic loss, but a measure of the state’s relative success in fighting the disease. California’s cumulative death rate is number 36 on a list that includes all 50 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia and Guam.
The gap was not always so great. In March 2021, Florida’s mortality rate per per capita to California, ranked 27th in the country, while California was 28. Sunshine State was also slightly ahead of California in terms of vaccinations at the time, with about 11.6% of the people fully vaccinated against 10.5% in California.
But in the months since Florida opened up and DeSantis was fighting for mandates for masks and vaccines, California took a more cautious approach. With the delta variant rising through the United States, Golden State – and in most Bay Area counties required – called for a resumption of indoor mask wearing and other safety measures.
Since then, California’s death rate has fallen relative to other states, while Florida’s has risen.
Health officials say the state’s ongoing mask mandates and social distancing were crucial contributors. Together with an ambitious vaccination program, these measures help explain why the country’s most populous state has seen fewer deaths.
Dr. Nicholas Moss, the public health officer for Alameda County, told The Chronicle in September that the Bay Area has shown how “vaccinations and masking” together can “limit the worst consequences of the pandemic, even with more activities happening.”
In three of the US states with the most COVID-19 deaths per per capita – Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana – less than half of the population is now vaccinated, according to the New York Times vaccine tracker. Also among the states that have suffered the most are New Jersey and New York, which were hit hard early in the pandemic, but whose death rates dropped markedly after May 2020, when vaccines began to spread. Now, 66% of New Jersey residents and 67% of New Yorkers are vaccinated.
A study published in early September by the CDC showed that unvaccinated people were over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 and 11 times more likely to die from it. In California, unvaccinated people were between 15 and 20 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than vaccinated Californians, according to state data from September.
“Higher vaccination rates result in lower incidence of the virus,” said Dr. Robert Siegel, an immunology expert at Stanford. That means the risk of getting the disease is lower for everyone, he said, adding that vaccinations have protected people from serious illness and death.
By the end of October, Florida and California now have relatively high – and similar – vaccination rates, with 60% and 61% of their eligible populations fully vaccinated, respectively, according to the New York Times vaccine tracker. Both are above the overall US interest rate of 58%. That may help explain why Florida’s new case rate has now fallen so sharply.
Still, public health experts say California’s strong public health policy was a crucial factor in keeping Californians safer over the summer. “In addition to immunization, masking is one of our most valuable tools for preventing infection,” said Dr. John Swartzberg of UC Berkeley School of Public Health.
Danielle Echeverria is an contributor to the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: danielle.echeverria@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @DanielleEchev